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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2015 16:36:44 GMT
I decided to start tracking my rune draws after spending about 25k gems and 150k glory. Yea, I know, I'm dumb and didn't think of this before I spent all that mess on rune launch day. Oh well. Anyway, here's my current spreadsheet: tinyurl.com/q67fhj4I'll be keeping this much more basic than that rebirth stats spreadsheet I did a few months ago. I'm just tracking what I draw with either glory or gems and then calculating the percentages associated with those data. No, I have not drawn a 5* with glory. I'll keep adding my draws to this spreadsheet, so you can see how my data changes over time. I think it's interesting that gem draws has a nice curve while glory does not. And just a quick note, I wouldn't be too sure of the accuracy until both gems and glory total draws is greater than 1000. Let me know if there any way I can improve on this data collection.
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Post by DianaTroy [βκ] on Jun 10, 2015 16:57:31 GMT
Nice breakdown @polygonal
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2015 22:04:08 GMT
Thanks! I've spent the whole day, literally all bloody day, drawing with glory points. I've also added two tables showing the most common draws for glory and gems. Took me longer than I'd like to admit figuring out the formula for that. REALLY wish Google Sheets would properly use =LOOKUP(1,0/FREQUENCY(0,1/(1+( as that would have made this soooo much easier. There's a limitation with using INDEX(MATCH(MAX(IF in that if two values are identical, it'll go with the first value. So If I've drawn Afflict and Anger both 200 times, it'll show Afflict as being the most common. Not much I can do about that... that I know of. And funny thing, I met Marina Sirtis a couple of weeks ago when she was visiting Houston: She was very pleasant to chat with and she really reminded me of her character in the first season.
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Post by DianaTroy [βκ] on Jun 13, 2015 8:40:51 GMT
Nice!
I need to go to a Trekkie convention.
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Post by ℜ★Xega on Jun 13, 2015 14:51:27 GMT
Yeah we have someone in our guild is tracking rune data and some of us add to it, so we tracked several million gp. Just keep building up your sample size, seems like you've been fairly lucky with your draws.
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Post by DianaTroy [βκ] on Jun 13, 2015 15:10:07 GMT
Yeah we have someone in our guild is tracking rune data and some of us add to it, so we tracked several million gp. Just keep building up your sample size, seems like you've been fairly lucky with your draws. With such a big sample size, you can confirm/deny this. Is it possible to draw 5* with Glory, or is IGG lying again?
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Post by ℜ★Xega on Jun 13, 2015 15:51:27 GMT
Yeah we have someone in our guild is tracking rune data and some of us add to it, so we tracked several million gp. Just keep building up your sample size, seems like you've been fairly lucky with your draws. With such a big sample size, you can confirm/deny this. Is it possible to draw 5* with Glory, or is IGG lying again? I've spoken with enough players to say with about 10m gp spent no 5* proof... some guy in VM claims to have gotten two 5* from gp but has no screenshot showing it was a gp draw. I don't believe it is possible.
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Post by Somar [BK] on Jun 13, 2015 16:01:18 GMT
Since runes came out all my glory has been spent drawing them. Not a single point on heroes. That's about 20k a day minimum.
So far havent got a single 5* rune.
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Post by DianaTroy [βκ] on Jun 13, 2015 16:07:42 GMT
Since runes came out all my glory has been spent drawing them. Not a single point on heroes. That's about 20k a day minimum. So far havent got a single 5* rune. Me too, now I have a bunch of leveling on my Heroes backed up. Might as well use the huge chunks from Guild Battles to level them up.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 16:08:41 GMT
I can't say one way or another if it is possible to draw a 5* from glory. It's impossible to prove that you can't. However, give the data we've seen, it seems highly unlikely.
I think it's obvious there's a "luck" modifier for all IGG games. Some accounts are just prone to better draws than others. My castle clash smurf is one of these and it seems like my DH main account is also. So think about that as you're looking at my dataset. Your results will very likely vary.
Ya, go to a convention... it's a blast to talk with the actors. Some of them are extremely friendly and will make your face hurt from laughing.
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Post by Somar [BK] on Jun 13, 2015 16:28:36 GMT
With the sample taken from this thread alone (and with ℜ★Xega mentioning data from guild mates) at least 1 of us should got 1 5* rune from GP by now. This alone is leading me to believe that's pretty much an impossibility.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 17:00:47 GMT
It could easily be the case of:
IGG sets P(A)=0.000001 or some other stupidly small number IGG states it's possible to draw a 5* rune using glory IGG can then claim their game is working as intended
Remember that we're also talking about compounding probabilities here. From statue 1 you have a chance to move to statue 2. From statue 2 you have yet another chance to move to statue 3, etc. I haven't tried to figure out those probabilities, but I guess I could take a swing at it later. Once you've succeeded in a series of chances, you then get an exceedingly small chance at rolling a 5* with glory.
Using gems on statue 5 alone might actually net you a 10% chance of rolling a 5*, but the effect of the statue propagation's compounding probabilities reduces the overall chance of a gem 5* down to below 1% overall. We would have to calculate each statue's rune chances independently... and I'm not that insane. Too much paperwork.
Also, I'm willing to bet my left ear that gem vs glory statue migration probability is not the same.
I'm not trying to defend IGG here. My gut says they've made the chance of rolling a 5* with glory so incredibly remote that it might as well be impossible. But if some buttmunch noob who plays for only one week happens to roll a 5* rune with glory, then IGG can easily point to that instance and say it is indeed possible.
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Post by entropy✪NFS on Jun 14, 2015 21:57:59 GMT
Great work @polygonal! I hope you keep it updated every now and then. Also, Tom Waits rulz!!!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2015 13:51:16 GMT
Thanks! I've added a couple of tables in the center to track the chance of moving from one statue to the next. I won't make this dataset huge as it's a major pain to track. I'll get just enough so that we have a good idea of the chance to see the 5th statue.
Tom Waits is awesome. I have Swordfishtrombone on vinyl, but I really want Rain Dogs. Kinda hard to find in the local vinyl stores. Clap Hands is my favorite, closely followed by Singapore.
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