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Post by ℜ★Grogulus on Jun 6, 2016 17:42:26 GMT
I've been recording my results on booster draws for the past little while. Along with wanting the cards, part of this was experimentation to try to evaluate the oft-heard postulate of 'boosters suck'. Now that I have a reasonably large sample set, I thought I might share my results to-date with the group:
# draws: 257 # creature attempts: 9 ...I drew a particular booster until a hit on the rare Avg draws to get the rare: 29 ...same data, less max/min: 22 Median draws to get the rare: 19 Spread: 3 times <6, 1 time >50 Avg boosters to get a 5* drop: 5
There doesn't appear to be any correlation between events like Sky Arena and drop rate. Both a high and a low occurred during SA. Anecdotally speaking, there does appear to be some merit in taking a break when it appears that you're in a bad rut with the RNG. The highest draw set was largely due to a stubborn, alcohol-influenced set that I suspect would have ended differently had I walked away for awhile. The two other times I walked away after 20 whiffs, I came back during the next draw period and hit within another 10-20.
What I took away from this is that while boosters do suck, they don't suck as badly as I expected. 3 out of 9 times I got a hit within 5 draws. Also: don't drink and draw!
I'll post updates from time to time if there's enough interest.
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Give me back my $20 you IGGnorant.
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Post by voldrox [BK] on Jun 6, 2016 17:58:32 GMT
Don't drink and draw guys.
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Suku [4H]
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Post by Suku [4H] on Jun 6, 2016 18:49:24 GMT
Draw responsibly
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Post by dhinstructables on Jun 6, 2016 18:52:28 GMT
Friends don't let Friends Drink & Draw!
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Post by sblip on Jun 6, 2016 19:00:15 GMT
seriously though, this is good data, thank you for sharing. confirms drop rates for boosters over a relatively small but large enough to give a decent picture amount .. suck, as we all expected. an average of 29 draws to get the rare = me not buying any more boosters until i've done enough bonds that it's a drop in the bucket. I wasn't going to anyway, but those rates really put it into perspective.
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Post by skippy on Jun 7, 2016 4:31:47 GMT
I've actually wanted to know this aswell. One can of course be lucky enough to get something rare on the first try, but since luck is something other people have, boosters are a no go for me aswell. And yes, this is very interesting information, so keep it up.
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Post by Sinister22✪NFS on Jun 7, 2016 5:55:31 GMT
This is a great information. Great work!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2016 7:24:55 GMT
Definitely much better than altar rate for sure. Have you done the same experiment for altar? Thank you for the info. I'm drinking and drawing responsibly.
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Post by ℜ★Grogulus on Jun 7, 2016 23:06:42 GMT
Definitely much better than altar rate for sure. Have you done the same experiment for altar? Thank you for the info. I'm drinking and drawing responsibly. Funny you menton that. My perception of crappy altar results is what spurred the booster quest. I wasn't keeping draw data as religiously then, but I have enough to guesstimate some comparison data. This is through 4 SA events 5-9 months ago. I drew a crapload of runes during that spell, too, so I'm working based on probable ranges of draws, somewhere between 400 and 500. Avg draws per 5* drop: 8.5-9.5 Avg draws per Desirable: 32-36 Avg draws per "Rare": 22-25 ...Desirable=Paragon, Dahlia, Scorpio, Santa Claudia, Blossoms, etc. ..."Rare" per IGG definition, which still includes Drone and Sea Wizard. If you include spending reward rares, the effective draw rates are cut to 20-23 and 15-17. Ultimately, the returns have similarity...if you are willing to spend 90k gems to get the top TSR the altar becomes statistically better than boosters - essentially buying in bulk. My issue with the altar is the variability in the cards received. Only one time did I get the 'boss' SA bonus card through the altar. Three times I got the lowest rare bonus card. This is a limited sample set, of course, and I know many folks swear by the altar over the booster.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2016 3:21:55 GMT
Definitely much better than altar rate for sure. Have you done the same experiment for altar? Thank you for the info. I'm drinking and drawing responsibly. Funny you menton that. My perception of crappy altar results is what spurred the booster quest. I wasn't keeping draw data as religiously then, but I have enough to guesstimate some comparison data. This is through 4 SA events 5-9 months ago. I drew a crapload of runes during that spell, too, so I'm working based on probable ranges of draws, somewhere between 400 and 500. Avg draws per 5* drop: 8.5-9.5 Avg draws per Desirable: 32-36 Avg draws per "Rare": 22-25 ...Desirable=Paragon, Dahlia, Scorpio, Santa Claudia, Blossoms, etc. ..."Rare" per IGG definition, which still includes Drone and Sea Wizard. If you include spending reward rares, the effective draw rates are cut to 20-23 and 15-17. Ultimately, the returns have similarity...if you are willing to spend 90k gems to get the top TSR the altar becomes statistically better than boosters - essentially buying in bulk. My issue with the altar is the variability in the cards received. Only one time did I get the 'boss' SA bonus card through the altar. Three times I got the lowest rare bonus card. This is a limited sample set, of course, and I know many folks swear by the altar over the booster. Very interesting. I figured it'd be the other way around due to my own experience, though I never collected any precise data from draws. The wide range of 5* creatures in altar would lower the chance to draw the desirable creature, still better to draw from boosters in most cases.
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Post by ℜ★God on Jun 9, 2016 0:13:43 GMT
#GrogTheStatMaster
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